Padres offseason primer: A look at the business at hand

Fernando Tatis suffered a broken wrist last spring. Manny Machado has been out for about a month with an ankle injury. The rotation has been rocking for the big shots in the second half of the season. Their new door closers took a month to get right. The trade barely filled first base, Juan Soto rarely really became Juan Soto in San Diego, and Tatis’s PED suspension wrecked AJ Preller’s dream of a Big Three at the top.

However, while all the wheels are spinning and everything is going wrong in 2022, the Padres have found a way to do it almost exactly the way they hoped: beat the Dodgers in a playoff series and stay away from the world The place took several breaks (or maybe different decisions) in the series.


How to do?

get better. certainly.

“It’s an experience of what’s to come,” Preler, the club’s president of baseball operations, said in Game 5 of the NLCS the day after the season. “I think we all understand that we’re not there yet. I think the most exciting thing to look forward to is knowing that we have a few steps ahead of us, but I think our experience here in the last six to eight months will serve us well service and finally get to that big stage and do what we want to do as an organization.”

Now, with the World Series over, Preller and Co. can officially get to work on the business at hand:

log problem

  • End of 2022: 89-73, 2unknown at NL West (lost in NLCS)
  • 2023 draft position: 27th

what’s next

  • The Padres begin a six-man rotation in 2022 with as many as seven at a time, trading off their youngest arm (Mackenzie Gore) In the deal, Soto ends the season with three starters who can count on for a playoff series. Yudavish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove will be together for at least a year, But finding starting pitching depth — the fourth and fifth (and sixth to eighth) arms — seems to be the biggest priority.These plans include expanding Adrian Morejon Usage rate, but he won’t jump from 47 1/3 total innings in 2022 in the first year after Tommy John surgery to a mature job in the rotation. Nick Martinez Might be an option if he chooses to join or make new agreements and new people Jay Groom (El Paso’s 3.16 ERA) Good performance in 10 triple-A’s since arriving Eric Hosmer trading.But Preller will have to look elsewhere for weapons because of obvious internal options such as Ryan Weathers (El Paso’s 6.73 ERA) and Rice Knell (El Paso 6.88 ERA) is a step back this year, though the latter could be an option for Martinez’s vacant swing role.
  • Adding Tatis to his PED suspension is arguably the biggest acquisition any team can make, let alone one from an NLCS suspension. How Tatis returns needs to be mapped he a shortstop Kim Ha Sung to second base and Jack Cronanworth Going into the big hole at first base? Is he an outfielder keeping the Padres focused on first base/DH?Knowing Preller, there are dozens of variations on this equation, as teams not only measure Tatis returns, but Jurickson Profar’s Potential opt-outs and how to improve Josh Bell/Brandon Drury/Will Myers Spin at first base/DH.
  • Unlike last year, the Padres broke camp knowing exactly who their close was: Josh Hader. However, the bridge to him is more Robert Suarez After a successful postseason, Martinez is likely to opt out for a bigger payday if he returns and Pierce Johnson is a free agent. Drew Pomeranz He has one more year left on his contract, but he hasn’t pitched since August 2021 and his contribution in 2023 is far from certain, meaning the pro scouting department would be well-placed to offer more bargain buys opportunity because they were exploring Suarez, Martinez and Luis Garcia.

decide, decide

Take a look at the selection decisions that will be made early in the offseason:

  • OF/1B Will Myers: It’s a no-brainer, as the Padres will have to pay Myers $20 million after his worst campaign (0.713 OPS) since his sophomore slump (0.614 OPS). The Padres will owe Myers $1 million in the buyout.
  • or Jurickson Profar: After his OPS jumped from .649 in 2021 to .723 this year, he has a $7.5 million player option instead of a $1 million buyout and can enjoy finding a better payday.
  • RHP Nick Martinez: He has a $6.5 million player option, not a $1.5 million buyout, and can test the market for a rotation job after playing various roles for the Padres in his first year back in the U.S.
  • RHP Robert Suarez: His scoreless run in the regular season and playoffs until Bryce Harper’s NLCS locks a homer should earn him a bigger payday than the $5 million he owes his player option . If he opts out, the Padres will owe Suarez $1 million.

outgoing free agent

  • LHP Sean Manea: After a strong start to the Padres tenure, his efficiency gradually declined to the point where Manaea (8-9, 4.96 ERA) was skipped in the final month of the season against a difficult team and didn’t appear in the season until Game 4. NLCS in the playoffs. In that appearance, Manaya allowed five runs in the bullpen in 1 1/3 innings, likely deciding his fate in San Diego.
  • RHP Mike Clevinger: An elbow injury kept him from helping the Padres in the 2020 playoffs, Tommy John’s surgery eliminated the 2021 season, and a slew of ailments, notably his right knee, left Clevinger (7-7, 4.33 ERA). ) a year before his last inconsistent free agency. Like Manaea, Clevinger’s NLCS appearances (0 IP, 3 ER) will make it hard to think about a reunion outside of the friendliest team trade.
  • RHP Pierce Johnson: An elbow injury limited the 31-year-old to 14 1/3 innings of the regular season after a stellar two-year (3.09 ERA) stint in Japan. Johnson has played six innings in 4 1/3 innings in the playoffs and should have no problem raising his $3 million salary in 2022 on the open market.
  • RHP Craig Stamen: The 38-year-old was ruled out of the playoffs after posting a 4.43 ERA in an injury-plagued 2022, but he posted a 3.36 ERA in six seasons in San Diego and played multiple roles. He made $4 million in 2022.

Eligible for wage arbitration

Estimates from MLB trade rumors are in parentheses:

  • The third year: Low pressure and high pressure Josh Hader ($13.6 million), C Jorge Alfaro ($3.6 million).
  • the second year: or Juan Soto ($21.5 million), LHP Tim Hill ($1.7 million), RHP Austin Adams (1,000,000).
  • the first year: 2B Jack Cronanworth ($4.4 million), or Trent Grisham ($2.6 million), C Austin Nora ($2.2 million), LHP Jose Castillo ($0.9 million), LHP Adrian Morejon ($0.8 million).

financial commitment

Check out the guaranteed contracts for the next three seasons:

  • 2023 ($126 million): 3B Manny Machado Will earn $30 million before getting a chance to retire after the season. RHP Yudavish ($19 million), LHP Blake Snell ($16.6 million), LHP Drew Pomeranz ($10 million) and RHP Luis Garcia ($3.5 million) becomes a free agent after the season, while RHP Joe Musgrove ($20 million) will start collecting his $100 million deal.SS Kim Ha Sung and SS Fernando Tatis Both will make $7 million, though Tatis’s salary won’t officially start until after his suspension period ends.Padres still owe $13 million over next three seasons Eric Hosmer.
  • 2024 ($82 million): If he doesn’t opt ​​out, Machado ($30 million) is the biggest payout, followed by Musgrove ($20 million), Hosmer’s penultimate year ($13 million), Tatis ($11 million) and Kim ($8 million) )) in the last year of his original four-year contract.
  • 2025 ($83 million): As Padres and Kim share an $8 million co-option, the only contracts this year are Machado ($30 million), Musgrove ($20 million), Tatis ($20 million) and the final year of Hosmer’s deal ($13 million) ) ).

Celebrities who meet the draft Rule 5

  • Triple A: LHP Tom Cosgrove, LHP Aaron Leasher, OF Taylor Kohlwey, OF Tirso Ornelas, RHP Jose Quezada.
  • Double A: RHP Jason Blanchard, OF Korry Howell, RHP Brandon Komar, RHP Moises Lugo, C Yorman Rodriguez, OF Agustin Ruiz, C Noel Vela.
  • Single A: INF Charlis Aquino, INF Nerwilian Cedeno, RHP Keegan Collett, OF Albert Fabian, RHP Chris Lincoln, 1B Carlos Luis, RHP Hazel Quijada, RHP Nick Thwaits, C Brandon Valenzuela, C Juan Zabala.

key date

  • Day 1 (Sunday) after the World Series: Eligible players become free agents
  • November 7-10: Las Vegas General Manager Meeting
  • Day 5 after the World Series: Free agency begins; last day for qualifying offers (one year, $19.65 million) to be made to free agency).
  • November 18: The last day of a contract offered to players with less than six years of service.
  • 15th The day after the World Series: Players who extend qualifying offers must choose to accept or decline the offer by this date.
  • November 30: Final day to thoroughly beat a player before Rule 5​​​​
  • December 4-7: San Diego Winter Conference (Draft Rule 5 on the last day)
  • February 24: The Cactus League kicks off against the Seattle Mariners in Peoria, Arizona.
  • March 30: Opening Day (Clerk Rockies)

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