So far, four state governor’s mansions are set to change hands — Arizona, Maryland and Massachusetts to Democrats, and Nevada to Republicans. CNN has yet to predict a winner for Alaska.
Since 2018, the three biggest shifts in favor of one party or the other have occurred in blue eastern states that have historically leaned toward electing moderate Republicans as their chief executives: two Democratic flips and Vermont, the latter of which Leaning more Republican. Massachusetts and Maryland supported Democrats by 63 and 40 points, respectively. Both of their new governors will make history, with Maura Healey becoming Massachusetts’ first lesbian governor and first woman elected governor, and Wes Moore becoming Maryland’s first black governor.
Both Healy and Moore are successors to moderate Republicans who were once the two most popular governors in the country. In Vermont, a moderate Republican governor. Phil Scott — the other most popular governor in the country — is expected to win re-election by a wider margin than he did four years ago. As of Monday night, Scott led by more than 45 points after winning by 15 points in 2018.
Three Republican incumbent governors in particular have widened their margins — by about 20 points — to make their states redder: the governor of South Dakota. Ohio Governor Kristi Noem Mike DeWine and Florida Governor. Ron DeSantis.
In Florida and South Dakota, every county that has released results so far has swung Republican, including those that voted for Democratic challengers.
The gubernatorial race offers a window into how the political winds have shifted since the last midterm election in 2018, as the same 36 states have had gubernatorial contests in both years, and many of the same candidates are running for re-election. Below, we analyze how state and county votes for governor have changed compared with four years ago.
Data will be updated every 15 minutes.